Project Summary

National Science Foundation, Small Business Innovative Research Phase I Grant:  The research objective was to develop an initial proof-of-concept method for synthesizing the large amounts of often conflicting climate data into meaningful and actionable data that can be combined with the community needs to identify the projected social, economic, cultural, and environmental risks due to disasters and extreme weather. We developed a prototype design for an innovative, forward-looking Community Impact Statement (CIS).

The CIS integrates all the biophysical processes at a given location, overlying stakeholder input, particularly regarding the site's adaptability.  To understand the vulnerability of a site, we must first understand the site's capacity to adapt to the changing biophysical processes, taking into consideration both a system’s sensitivity to change and its capacity to adapt to change. For example, a sea-level rise prediction of 0.5 m may be deemed acceptable (e.g., ability to adapt) for the coastline near Anchorage, an area with tidal ranges up to 12 m. In contrast, a 0.5 m of sea-level rise may be deemed unacceptable (e.g., inability to adapt or having an adverse impact) for Utqiagvik, an area with historical tidal ranges of only 0.5 m.