Hazard Risk Services

Community Impact Statements (CIS)

Community Impact Statements (CIS)™ can be used in much the same capacity as an Environmental Impact Statement, with the exception that the CIS™ addresses the impact of the environment, including potential risks, on a project, asset or ecological service.

Our CIS™ are living documents, providing changes in potential risks for 20-year time slices that represent near-term (2030), mid-term (2060), and long-term (2090) projections, merging the impacts of slow onset and extreme events. The CIS process is unique in its ability to integrate the complexity of the physical, social, and ecological systems around an asset to provide a range of climate impacts that might occur. Our work translates complex environmental hazards into clear, decision-ready, defensible risk information that supports planning, operational continuity, engineering, regulatory compliance, and long-term decisions for capital investments across a range of sectors. Clients can do ‘what-if scenarios,’ or ‘visioning’ exercises to explore how their actions may alter potential impacts depending on their goals and how they use their resources.

A CIS™ can help to develop and monitor “tipping points,” or the points where a risk moves from acceptable to unacceptable. By understanding the potential timing of these tipping points, it is possible to respond promptly, potentially avoiding system failures, while reducing potential liabilities and expenses. Our clients can be proactive and not reactive to a changing future.

Large Scale Assessments

Community Impact Statements

A Community Impact Statement addresses the impact of the environment on the project and seeks to minimize any failure or damage to existing or new developments, infrastructure, or ecosystem service over the course of its life cycle.

Community Impacts

A CIS™ addresses current gaps in the Environmental Impact Statements by being dynamic in its approach. The CIS™ is a living document and not a static one-time process allowing it to evolve with the environment and as changes occur, for example, to reflect recent erosion or changes after extreme events and disasters.

Adaptation & Resilience

The CIS™ helps anticipate and adapt to the extremes of changing risks, reducing the risks and improving community and infrastructure strength, both today and in the future.

Affordable Risk Identification

The CIS™ process is primed to be started at project start as a simple and affordable add-on. Planning and designing projects which incorporate future risks and potential environmental impacts increase the sustainability of the project and is an investment that has been shown to have significant financial benefits covering the cost of the CIS many times over, especially given changing conditions.

Integrated Community Adaptation & Risk Impact Statements (ICARIS)

Icarus, the man who flew too close to the sun and had his wings melt. Did you know that if Icarus flew too close to the sea his wings would fail as well? This is a lesson in balance, and illustrates exactly what our ICARIS™ strives to achieve.

The ICARIS™ is based on a CIS and includes Traditional and Local knowledge, or First Line Scientists, to identify and decrease biophysical and environmental risks, increasing community strength based on how communities use their natural resources. The ICARIS™ process also identifies and quantifies different potential management options and evaluates the success of the selected management actions including benefit costs analysis, to increase resilience and sustainability while reducing future monetary, social, and cultural losses.

Two Bears Environmental Consulting, LLC used National Science Foundation (NSF) Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) Phase I & II competitive grant awards to develop proof of concept for creating Community Impact Statements and Integrated Community Adaptation and Risk Impact Statements.

Robust, Tailored Applications on a Grand Scale

A Living Document

ICARIS™ is a living document, changing as community objectives shift and as new data is available. ICARIS™ empowers vulnerable communities to move from reactive to proactive hazard resilient strategies.

Historical Documents

The ICARIS™ compares proven processes (e.g., flooding, erosion, drought, food security, public health, etc.) with the changes in future processes so community members and stakeholders can better understand their risks, including the ‘no-action’ option.

Building a Better Product

ICARIS™ builds on the CIS™ by incorporating observed changes in the social, ecological, and cultural observations by First Line Scientists – those living in the community – with Machine Learning and Earth System Models. Both provide meaningful and actionable data for future risk assessments that address the local societal concerns in a visually understandable manner. First Line Scientists often have access to observations that date back several generations providing a strong Traditional Knowledge base.

Using the ICARIS™, State, Regional and City organizations, Indigenous Communities, City Administrators and Planners, Governmental Agencies, Utility and Transportation Companies, Business Enterprises, and community members are offered potential impacts of futures risks on the biophysical and social processes in the context of their lifestyles, economy, business, and cultures. They are provided tools to preview what the future may look like in 10, 50, or 100 years to choose the actions they would like to take today to adapt and maintain their culture, lifestyle, economy, and businesses for future generations.

The ICARIS™ is adaptive, comparing the ability of potential management strategies to reduce risks; the benefits associated with each action can be evaluated separately and cumulatively, as well as the success of each action. For example, did the action reduce the magnitude and timing of the impacts of the targeted hazard to the degree expected? Were conditions improved to a level greater than baseline, if that was the expectation? It is an interactive process to bring stakeholders together, and to increase the understanding of risks and hazards, generate discussion, and develop a plan forward to increase community resilience. A community, city, or region cannot reduce the probability of a flood event, but they can reduce the flood’s impact by raising homes above the expected flood levels.

Not only does the ICARIS™ support comparisons between potential options, but it is also a quick visual to demonstrate what processes are being impacted between communities, enabling between-community comparisons. ICARIS™ gives all stakeholders a voice and a role in taking control of their futures, empowering community members and partners to be proactive instead of reactive in planning for change. ICARIS™ can be used across sectors, preparing communities, governments and businesses for changing conditions.

An Example of ICARIS in Action: Because Alaska’s environment is changing and projected to continue to change, planning and adaptation for future changes are necessary to reduce community risk. Meeting this challenge will broaden the impacts of hazard science in highly visible and societally relevant ways. The complexity of predicted environmental changes, combined with the accelerated loss of traditional ways of living and increased industrial activities, called for developing an integrated scheme that links local policymakers, scientists, and stakeholders.

Targeted Risk Impact Statements

Targeted Risk Impact Statement (TRIS) – a cost-effective, focused solution designed to address specific high risk variables with precision and efficiency. Unique from our ICARIS™ and CIS™ , the TRIS targets particular variables or impacts, providing specific insights for smaller projects, end-of-year funding, or as add-ons to existing grants. Whether you're concerned about erosion, wildfire risk, or the impact of risks on a specific asset like a cemetery, historical site, bridge or dock, TRIS offers the precise data you need without unnecessary complexity.

Ideal for smaller communities and organizations with limited budgets, TRIS delivers fast turnaround times, enabling you to quickly incorporate findings into your planning and decision-making processes. Its versatility extends to various environmental and ecological contexts, from assessing the impact of risks on water quality, wildlife habitats and agriculture to protecting community and cultural assets. With TRIS, you gain actionable insights that empower you to make informed decisions, ensuring strong, long-lasting options in the face of change.

Potential Use Cases:

Community Planning

Wildfire and Vegetation Assessments

Subsistence and Food Security Analysis

Lifeline Assessments

Agricultural Viability

Infrastructure Integrity

Small Scale Targeted Assessments

Versatility

TRIS can be applied to various environmental and ecological contexts. Whether you need to assess the impacts on water quality, wildlife habitats, or other specific ecosystem services, TRIS provides the detailed analysis you need.

Community & Cultural Assets

Assess the impact of future climates on specific community or cultural assets, such as cemeteries, historical sites, or local landmarks.

Quick Turnaround

Designed for efficiency, TRIS offers fast data turnaround, allowing you to quickly incorporate findings into your planning and decision-making processes.

Staged Adaptation

Building infrastructure to withstand all potential environmental hazards is cost prohibitive, especially since a worst-case scenario may not occur. With Staged Adaptation, infrastructure is built assuming that it will be modified in the future as actual risks escalate. Risks are monitored; when acceptable risks move to unacceptable risks, infrastructure is adapted without the need to retrofit or rebuild existing structures. These tipping points are determined by the client and their risk appetite.

Staged Adaptation Services

Infrastructure

Monitoring existing infrastructure, such as energy, transportation, supply routes, homes, business and other critical assets, to assess when risk becomes unacceptable can trigger modifications before severe damage occurs, reducing costs, liabilities and disruptions. Building infrastructure in ‘stages’ that are adaptable to future conditions is cost effective (less retrofitting) and more resilient.

Threshold Analysis

ICARIS is a foundation for detecting risks and hazards in real time using in-situ data monitors to identify changes based on Client identified thresholds. Site specific field data and public monitoring systems are used to develop a unified forecasting framework designed to generate near-term and seasonal probabilities of disruptions and changes in risks (acceptable to unacceptable), with outputs that are usable, interpretable, and aligned with real-world decision timelines.

Contamination Containment

Monitoring these sites from acceptable risk (containment integrity not likely to be comprised) to unacceptable risk (containment integrity comprised) is critical for ensuring the contaminants do not detrimentally impact water, food, health or other environmental processes and consequently ecosystem services.

Water Management

Water management often requires the development of specific infrastructure to reduce risks from too much or too little water availability.

Clean Up Practices

Clean up practices for contaminated spills assume a given receiving environment, e.g., ice on water, water currents, temperature, wind. If conditions move outside of the assumed conditions, current clean up protocols may not be effective.

Hazard Mitigation Plans

Hazard mitigation planning is a proactive approach to identifying and addressing environmental risks that threaten agriculture, infrastructure, and energy security. These plans help communities prepare for extreme weather events and natural hazards by reducing risks to critical assets and resources.

Potential Risks: